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Archive for May, 2009

The Junk Rally and Quant Hedge Fund Performance: A Lesson in Asymmetric Risk

Simons Questioned by Investors & Live-Blogging The Renaissance RIEF Call

R/Finance 2009: Applied Finance with R

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April continued to be dominated by two themes:

  1. None of the strategies I track did much – they’re all pretty much sideways in a market like this.  They have a month up and then a month down.  In terms of MOMO1, this is actually what I would expect – the system performs best in a bull market and despite the rally, we are not yet in a bull market in my view.  It could also be that we are in a very different market – closer to 1930 or 1970 rather than 2000-2008 – so the systems may simply not come back to life for a while.  As such I continue to monitor them and make changes as I see fit.
  2. The little time I have these days is split between my family and my job.

Despite all of this, I’ve been impressed with the rally in the market over the past two months although I have not been as invested as I should have been.

Also exciting this month: Amibroker update that makes doing this reporting much, much easier.  The other really nice feature about the new reporting is that it is customizable – so you can program new charts which is pretty darn neat and something that I used Tradersstudio for.  The individual strategy pages have been changed to reflect the new reporting.

MR1 was the bigger winner in April.  Stats are below.  Disappointing is that all the strategies significantly underperformed the market – I’m not really shocked at this given the huge change in trend during the past month – but it is disappointing nevertheless.

As normal, you’ll find the individual strategies pages (MOMO1, TREND1, MR1) have updated equity curves, statistics and current holdings. As was true of my last update – all the trading systems below assume an Interactive Broker‘s-like commission plan – for these, it is .01 cent per share with a $1 dollar minimum.  None of these system count dividends.

MOMO1:

  • Return for April-09: -0.3%
  • Return YTD: 3.1%
  • Current holdings: IGN, EWT, HHH

TREND1:

  • Return for April-09: -1.9%
  • Return YTD: -1.8% (includes some of May)
  • Current holdings: AGG, IWM

MR1:

  • Return for April-09: 5.1%
  • 2009: -3.9% (includes some of May)
  • Current holdings: See blog for updates.

Benchmarks (from March 31,2009 till April 30,2009):

  • S&P500:
    • April-09: 9.39%
    • 2009: 2.88% (through May 8th)
  • DOW:
    • April-09: 7.35%
    • 2009: -2.30% (through May 8th)
  • Nasdaq:
    • April-09: 12.72%
    • 2009: 15.06% (through May 8th)
  • IWM (proxy for the R2000):
    • March-09: 15.39%
    • 2009: 3.59% (through May 8th)
  • EFA (proxy for developed foreign markets):
    • March-09: 11.52%
    • 2009: 2.43% (through May 8th)
  • EEM (proxy for developing foreign markets):
    • March-09: 15.56%
    • 2009: 26.51% (through May 8th) – Wow!

As always – thanks for reading and I hope you have a good May!

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