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Archive for November 20th, 2008

Update on market

An adjacent building is da...

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Ok, so in my prior post I said the market hadn’t chosen a direction.  My mistake.  It has.  And it is straight down.

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CNBC's

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As expected, yesterday the Skills Index closed below its moving average.

So, what this means is that I’ll be looking on the short side rather than the long side for opportunities.  Meanwhile today, the market seems to be having trouble deciding which way to go.

skills-index-11-19-08

I’ve come to the obvious conclusion that all bets are off and have been off for while as to where this market goes.  And I’ve come to the conclusion that listening to most people – particularly talking heads on CNBC and Bloomberg that I normally don’t listen to anyway – has zero value in this market.  My strategy is all short term swings/day trading for now.

Other have made the argument that risk is all priced in and stocks are now at an excellent value.  Well, they also said that 10% ago.  For me, I’d rather suffer by missing the first 5-7% of a move up than face the downside of, say, another 10-15% haircut.  But that’s just me.

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