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Archive for November 2nd, 2008

Forgot to mention…

Woodshedder, over at iBankCoin, has posted some interesting trades as well – I’m part of the group that worked on, as he calls it, the “Power Double Dip” system.  As a result, and because of the double confirmation in the trades, I’ll be taking those trades tomorrow.

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Not sure if there is even any point in posting results for October, but hey, that’s what I signed up for, so that’s what I’m going to do.  Once again, I haven’t been trading these systems in October because the master signal is off.  Now, at the end of the month, the master signal (aka Skills Index) turned to an “on” position.  So, what does this mean?

First, I took some long exposure on the sell-off with the notable divergences that everyone and their mother noticed.  If you remember, I said in my post, something to the affect of “I’ll wait for the RSI to pull back”, and, at the same time, we didn’t have a larger number of new lows, so I got a bit long.

As for the systems themselves, I’m watching them.  I’ll need a lot more confirmation of this rally and that the systems are working again before I start putting money to work.

Onto the results…again, pretty disappointing.  The final numbers for MR1 for September were up 11.4%, and for October a meager 0.8%. MOMO1 and TREND1 continue their downward trends, with TREND1 basically being shut off.

Now, if you want to see some amazing results, check out rob over at Quantifiable Edges.  Amazing results for his CBI system of approximately 516% – now he doesn’t publish position sizing which makes sense but you can’t argue with his results.

As normal, you’ll find the individual strategies pages (MOMO1, TREND1, MR1) have updated equity curves, statistics and current holdings. As was true of my last update – all the trading systems below assume an Interactive Broker‘s-like commission plan – for these, it is .01 cent per share with a $1 dollar minimum.

MOMO1:

  • Return for Oct-08: -11.1% (does not include dividends)
  • Return YTD: -29.6%
  • Current holdings: SHY, TLT, GLD

TREND1:

  • Return for Oct-08: -15.4% (does not include dividends)
  • Return YTD: -32.4%
  • Current holdings: None – out of the market (all on it’s own!)

MR1:

  • Return for Oct-08: 0.8% (does not include dividends)
  • Return YTD: 5.9%
  • Current holdings: See blog for updates.

Benchmarks: All my benchmarks are from Google Finance – so your results may be slightly different.

  • S&P500:
    • Oct-08: -16.56%
    • YTD: -34.03%
  • DOW:
    • Oct-08: -13.9%
    • YTD: -29.7%
  • Nasdaq:
    • Oct-08: -16.84%
    • YTD: -35.11%
  • IWM (proxy for the R2000):
    • Oct-08: -19.8%
    • YTD: -29.18%
  • EFA (proxy for developed foreign markets):
    • Oct-08: -20.24%
    • YTD: -43.22%
  • EEM (proxy for developing foreign markets):
    • Oct-08: -26.24%
    • YTD: -49.24%

As always – I welcome any questions or comments you might have, and I hope you caught the move up last week!

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