Good lesson in sticking with a trade from this one. On July 8th, I recommended taking positions in XLE, XOP and/or XES. On July 9th, I took those position but was quickly shaken out of them. But what I realize is that I was trading with too tight a stop. So while I didn’t do [...]
Archive for July, 2008
How’d those energy trades do so far – or, how I jumped off the train as it was just getting going
Posted in Strategy Update, Strategy ideas on July 14, 2008 | 10 Comments »
Why I’ve been looking beyond buy and hold – or, “Welcome to the lost decade”
Posted in QuantCloud, Quantitative Analysis on July 14, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
Nick Gogerty over at designing better futures (via Worldbeta) has an excellent post on the importance of not losing money. Here’s the chart and the money quote:
The acceleration point for losses requiring greater gains is around a 13% loss. Think of it as inverting the power of compounding returns. Currently the S&P is 26% below [...]
Ouch – that’s going to leave a mark…
Posted in Strategy ideas on July 9, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
I said there would be a SMALL reversal! Small! Market, listen to me! (The silence from the market is deafening).
Ah well, the selloff today was interesting – such is life in the market. One interesting thing about the selloff – and believe me I’m not trying to justify my past positions – the volume today [...]
T2108 does it again….
Posted in Strategy ideas on July 8, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
I meant to post about this last night but just ran out of time due to me being sick all day, but the T2108 indicator from Worden went down to 8% yesterday – a very good sign for a bounce. For those that don’t know anything about this indicator, it is a calculation of [...]
XLE – Long opportunity?
Posted in Strategy ideas on July 8, 2008 | 2 Comments »
Well, my TREND1 and MOMO1 strategies have really been taking it on the chin the past few days – this is to be expected as they are so heavily in commodities. But looking at a few charts, I think we might see a reversal – OIL has an RSI of around 7, DIG is [...]
Bespoke fails me….
Posted in Politics, QuantCloud on July 8, 2008 | 6 Comments »
I like the folks over at Bespoke, but today they committed one of the great sins in statistics – mistaking correlation for causation:
“While fund raising statistics suggest that Barack Obama has strong support in the Wall Street community, the performance of the stock market in relation to Mr. Obama’s popularity suggests that investors may have [...]
Think commissions don’t matter?
Posted in Strategy ideas, Strategy testing on July 3, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
So one of the reasons why I was late in updating my strategies was an issue with my software – or at least I thought it was – turned out to be my dumb-headed operating of said software. I had set my commission rate, somehow, to a flat dollar per trade, regardless of the number [...]
June 2008 Strategy Updates
Posted in MOMO1, MR1, MR2, Strategy Update, TREND1 on July 3, 2008 | Leave a Comment »
Wow – what a June. I’d like to apologize for being late on delivering this – between my job and my vacation, I just got behind and it usually takes about 2 hours to put together the information for the update. Anyway, enough excuses – you’ll find the individual strategies pages (MOMO1, TREND1, MR1) have [...]
